Dunning-Kruger effect

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The Dunning-Kruger effect is the phenomenon wherein people who have little knowledge (or skill) tend to think that they know more (or have more skill) than they do, while others who have much more knowledge tend to think that they know less. Dunning and Kruger were awarded a 2000 Ig Nobel prize for their work.[1]

Hypotheses

The phenomenon was demonstrated in a series of experiments performed by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, both of Cornell University. Their results were published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in December 1999[2] with follow-up analyses[3] responding to criticisms.

Kruger and Dunning noted a number of previous studies which tend to suggest that in skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis, "ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" (as Charles Darwin put it). They hypothesized that with a typical skill which humans may possess in greater or lesser degree,

  1. Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill.
  2. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others.
  3. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy.
  4. If they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.

The Dunning-Kruger effect may be contagious[4].

Studies

Dunning-Kruger effect in hospital administrators[5]

They set out to test these hypotheses on human subjects consisting of Cornell undergraduates who were registered in various psychology courses. In a series of studies, Kruger and Dunning examined self-assessment of logical reasoning skills, grammatical skills, and humor. After being shown their test scores, the subjects were again asked to estimate their own rank, whereupon the competent group accurately estimated their rank, while the incompetent group still overestimated their own rank. As Dunning and Kruger noted,

Across four studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd.

Meanwhile, people with true knowledge tended to underestimate their competence. A follow-up study suggests that grossly incompetent students improve both their skill level and their ability to estimate their class rank only after extensive tutoring in the skills they had previously lacked.

In 2003 Dunning and Joyce Ehrlinger, also of Cornell University, published a study that detailed a shift in people's views of themselves influenced by external cues. Participants in the study (Cornell University undergraduates) were given tests of their knowledge of geography, some intended to positively affect their self-views, some intended to affect them negatively. They were then asked to rate their performance, and those given the positive tests reported significantly better performance than those given the negative.[6]

Daniel Ames and Lara Kammrath extended this work to sensitivity to others, narcissism, and the subjects' perception of how sensitive they were.[7] Narcissism and the Kruger Dunning effect may[7] or may not be correlated. Some more work by Burson Larrick and Joshua Klayman[8] has suggested that the effect is not so obvious and may be due to noise and bias levels.

The chief economist for the Bank of England, based on national data, has proposed that declining productivity in UK industry may be due to variation in management quality and that management may not be aware of their variation.[9]

The harm to leadership fo the Dunning-Kruger effect may be mitigated by leader humility[10].

Health care

Studies have shown that physicians are subject to the Dunning-Kruger effect.[11][12][13]

Physician may state familiarity with a non-existent guideline[14].

Treatment or remediation

Individuals affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect may[15] or may not[16] response to insight and feedback.

Other factors

Accuracy of self-assessment may also be moderated by task difficulty[17].

See also

References

  1. ↑ "The 2000 Ig Nobel Prize Winners". Improbable Research. Retrieved 2007-06-23.
  2. ↑ Kruger J, Dunning D (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments" (PDF). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 77 (6): 1121–34. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121. PMID 10626367.
  3. ↑ Ehrlinger J, Johnson K, Banner M, Dunning D, Kruger J (2008). "Why the Unskilled Are Unaware: Further Explorations of (Absent) Self-Insight Among the Incompetent". Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 105 (1): 98–121. doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2007.05.002. PMC 2702783. PMID 19568317.
  4. ↑ Cheng, Joey T.; Tenney, Elizabeth R.; Moore, Don A.; Logg, Jennifer M. (2020-11-17). "Overconfidence Is Contagious". Harvard Business Review. ISSN 0017-8012. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
  5. ↑ Van Velsor, E., Taylor, S., & Leslie, J. B. (1993). An examination of the relationships among self‐perception accuracy, self‐awareness, gender, and leader effectiveness. Human Resource Management, 32(2‐3), 249-263. doi:10.1002/hrm.3930320205
  6. ↑ Ehrlinger J, Dunning D (2003). "How Chronic Self-Views Influence (and Potentially Mislead) Estimates of Performance". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. American Psychological Association. 84 (1): 5–17. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.84.1.5.
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Ames DR, Kammrath LK (2004). "Mind-Reading and Metacognition: Narcissism, not Actual Competence, Predicts Self-Estimated Ability". Journal of Nonverbal Behavior. Springer Netherlands. 28 (3): 187–209. doi:10.1023/B:JONB.0000039649.20015.0e.
  8. ↑ Burson KA, Larrick RP, Klayman J, Yutao (2006). "Skilled or Unskilled, but Still Unaware of It: How Perceptions of Difficulty Drive Miscalibration in Relative Comparisons" (PDF). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 90 (1): 60–77. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.90.1.60.
  9. ↑ Haldane, Andrew G (2017-03-20). "Productivity puzzles". Bank of England. Retrieved 2017-07-13.
  10. ↑ Owens BP, Wallace AS, Waldman DA. Leader narcissism and follower outcomes: The counterbalancing effect of leader humility. Journal of Applied Psychology. 2015 Jul;100(4):1203 doi:10.1037/a0038698
  11. ↑ Kadhim-Saleh A, Worrall JC, Taljaard M, Gatien M, Perry JJ (2017). "Self-awareness of computed tomography ordering in the emergency department". CJEM: 1–9. doi:10.1017/cem.2017.45. PMID 28673374.
  12. ↑ Davis DA, Mazmanian PE, Fordis M, Van Harrison R, Thorpe KE, Perrier L (2006). "Accuracy of physician self-assessment compared with observed measures of competence: a systematic review". JAMA. 296 (9): 1094–102. doi:10.1001/jama.296.9.1094. PMID 16954489.
  13. ↑ Hodges B, Regehr G, Martin D (2001). "Difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence: novice physicians who are unskilled and unaware of it". Acad Med. 76 (10 Suppl): S87–9. PMID 11597883.
  14. ↑ Tunis SR, Hayward RS, Wilson MC, Rubin HR, Bass EB, Johnston M; et al. (1994). "Internists' attitudes about clinical practice guidelines". Ann Intern Med. 120 (11): 956–63. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-120-11-199406010-00008. PMID 8172440.
  15. ↑ Giambatista, Robert C., and J. Duane Hoover. 2014. “An Exploration of Overconfidence in Experiential Learning of Behavioral Skills among MBA Students.” Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning 41 (0).
  16. ↑ Sheldon OJ, Dunning D, Ames DR (2014). "Emotionally unskilled, unaware, and uninterested in learning more: reactions to feedback about deficits in emotional intelligence". J Appl Psychol. 99 (1): 125–37. doi:10.1037/a0034138. PMID 23957689.
  17. ↑ Moore, Don A.; Healy, Paul J. (April 2008). "The trouble with overconfidence". Psychological Review. 115 (2): 502–517. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502. eISSN 1939-1471. ISSN 0033-295X. PMID 18426301.



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